{"id":2189,"date":"2021-06-26T13:40:02","date_gmt":"2021-06-26T13:40:02","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/iscpif.fr\/chavalarias\/?p=2189"},"modified":"2021-06-26T13:47:01","modified_gmt":"2021-06-26T13:47:01","slug":"lechiquier-politique-des-regionales-2021","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/iscpif.fr\/chavalarias\/?p=2189","title":{"rendered":"L&#8217;\u00e9chiquier politique des R\u00e9gionales 2021"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-2hozz1-4d64ed8a624b717aa3662caac450a872\">\n.flex_column.av-2hozz1-4d64ed8a624b717aa3662caac450a872{\nborder-radius:0px 0px 0px 0px;\npadding:0px 0px 0px 0px;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div  class='flex_column av-2hozz1-4d64ed8a624b717aa3662caac450a872 av_one_full  avia-builder-el-0  avia-builder-el-no-sibling  first flex_column_div av-zero-column-padding  '     ><p>\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-kqdt8r5o-008653781f14f40438ede2367725c565\">\n.avia-image-container.av-kqdt8r5o-008653781f14f40438ede2367725c565 img.avia_image{\nbox-shadow:none;\n}\n.avia-image-container.av-kqdt8r5o-008653781f14f40438ede2367725c565 .av-caption-image-overlay-bg{\nopacity:0.4;\nbackground-color:#000000;\n}\n.avia-image-container.av-kqdt8r5o-008653781f14f40438ede2367725c565 .av-image-caption-overlay-center{\ncolor:#ffffff;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div  class='avia-image-container av-kqdt8r5o-008653781f14f40438ede2367725c565 av-styling-circle av-img-linked avia-align-center  avia-builder-el-1  el_before_av_textblock  avia-builder-el-first  noHover av-overlay-hover-deactivate'   itemprop=\"image\" itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/ImageObject\" ><div class=\"avia-image-container-inner\"><div class=\"avia-image-overlay-wrap\"><a href=\"https:\/\/iscpif.fr\/chavalarias\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2021\/06\/RegionaleserCandidats.png\" class='avia_image '  aria-label='R\u00e9gionaleserCandidats'><div class=\"av-image-caption-overlay\"><div class=\"av-caption-image-overlay-bg\"><\/div><div class=\"av-image-caption-overlay-position\"><div class=\"av-image-caption-overlay-center\"><p>Echiquier politique R\u00e9gionales 2021.<\/p>\n<\/div><\/div><\/div><img decoding=\"async\" fetchpriority=\"high\" class='wp-image-2194 avia-img-lazy-loading-not-2194 avia_image ' src=\"https:\/\/iscpif.fr\/chavalarias\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2021\/06\/RegionaleserCandidats.png\" alt='' title='R\u00e9gionaleserCandidats'  height=\"3000\" width=\"3000\"  itemprop=\"thumbnailUrl\"  \/><\/a><\/div><\/div><\/div><br \/>\n<section  class='av_textblock_section av-kqdt2h1x-2f988e2ebf14e4937ae5aab19810a967 '   itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/BlogPosting\" itemprop=\"blogPost\" ><div class='avia_textblock'  itemprop=\"text\" ><p class=\"part\" data-startline=\"4\" data-endline=\"4\">Gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 une <a href=\"https:\/\/politoscope.org\/2017\/04\/la-tweetosphere-politique\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">analyse des \u00e9changes politiques sur Twitter<\/a> nous avons reconstruit le paysage politique fran\u00e7ais sur la p\u00e9riode avril-mai 2021. Les images ci-dessous repr\u00e9sentent le coeur des communaut\u00e9s politiques sur cette p\u00e9riode : 57.000 comptes r\u00e9partis suivant des orientations politiques estim\u00e9es gr\u00e2ce \u00e0 une analyse du r\u00e9seau de leurs interactions. Chaque point repr\u00e9sente un compte Twitter, et les comptes de m\u00eame couleur ont \u00e9chang\u00e9 des messages de mani\u00e8re pr\u00e9f\u00e9rentielle sur la p\u00e9riode \u00e9tudi\u00e9e.<\/p>\n<p class=\"part\" data-startline=\"6\" data-endline=\"6\"><a href=\"https:\/\/iscpif.fr\/chavalarias\/?p=885\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Nous avons d\u00e9montr\u00e9<\/a> que les commuanut\u00e9s politiques d\u00e9limit\u00e9es avec cette approche recouvraient assez pr\u00e9cis\u00e9ment les communaut\u00e9s politiques r\u00e9elles (plus de 90% de pr\u00e9cision pour le coeur).<\/p>\n<p class=\"part\" data-startline=\"8\" data-endline=\"8\">Nous avons ensuite plac\u00e9 sur les images ci-dessous l\u2019ensemble des t\u00eates de liste aux \u00e9lections r\u00e9gionales 2021 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.franceinter.fr\/politique\/regionales-2021-voici-les-resultats-region-par-region\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">qui ont fait plus de 5% des voix<\/a>. Les trois images montrent respectivement l\u2019ensemble des candidats, ceux qui se sont qualifi\u00e9s pour le second tour (score sup\u00e9rieur \u00e0 10%), et ceux qui se sont finalement maintenu (les autres s\u2019\u00e9tant soit retir\u00e9, soit ont fait alliance). La taille des noms des candidats est proportionnelle \u00e0 leurs scores.<\/p>\n<p class=\"part\" data-startline=\"10\" data-endline=\"10\">Afin de donner des rep\u00e8res, ont \u00e9t\u00e9 \u00e9galement ajout\u00e9s sur cette carte certaines personnalit\u00e9s politiques non candidates, soulign\u00e9es en vert : Emmanuel Macron, Jean-Luc M\u00e9lenchon, Fran\u00e7ois Asselineau, Nicolas Dupont-Aignan, Marine Le Pen, Anne Hidalgo.<\/p>\n<p class=\"part\" data-startline=\"12\" data-endline=\"12\">Quelques faits remarquables, d\u00e9j\u00e0 remarqu\u00e9s dans les m\u00e9dia pour certains, peuvent servir de pistes \u00e0 des \u00e9tudes plus approfondies :<\/p>\n<ul class=\"part\" data-startline=\"13\" data-endline=\"18\">\n<li class=\"\" data-startline=\"13\" data-endline=\"13\">Du c\u00f4t\u00e9 des <em>R\u00e9publicains<\/em>, quasiment toutes les t\u00eates de liste pr\u00e9sent\u00e9es sont tr\u00e8s \u00e9loign\u00e9es du voisinage informationel de Laurent Wauquiez. Ainsi, les courants au sein de LR ne sont pas repr\u00e9sent\u00e9s de mani\u00e8re homog\u00e8ne pas les t\u00eates de listes candidates avec un fort biais pour la partie de LR la plus proche de LREM. L\u2019aile droite de LR jouxtant l\u2019espace id\u00e9ologique du <em>Rassemblement National<\/em> n\u2019a aucun candidat, peut-\u00eatre en raison d\u2019une strat\u00e9gie de diff\u00e9rentiation vis-vis des listes RN dans le choix des t\u00eates de listes.<\/li>\n<li class=\"\" data-startline=\"14\" data-endline=\"14\">Il n\u2019y a pas de t\u00eate de liste <em>La R\u00e9publique en Marche<\/em> dans le coeur de la communaut\u00e9 LREM constitu\u00e9 des membres et proches du gouvernement.<\/li>\n<li class=\"\" data-startline=\"15\" data-endline=\"15\"><em>La France Insoumise<\/em> n\u2019a maintenu aucun candidat au second tour, mis \u00e0 part via des alliances,<\/li>\n<li class=\"\" data-startline=\"16\" data-endline=\"16\">Les communaut\u00e9s autour de Asselineau, Dupont-Aigan et Philippot, qui se sont r\u00e9cemment rapproch\u00e9es au point de fusionner \u00e0 ce niveau d\u2019observation, sont totalement absentes du second tour et n\u2019avaient quasiment aucun candidat. Plusieurs hypoth\u00e8ses peuvent \u00eatre avanc\u00e9es \u00e0 ce propos : 1) cet aggr\u00e9gat de communaut\u00e9s n\u2019est pas assez structur\u00e9 dans le hors ligne pour pr\u00e9senter des candidats, 2) les membres de cette communaut\u00e9, connus pour \u00eatre particuli\u00e8rement actifs sur Twitter, pourraient \u00eatre surrepr\u00e9sent\u00e9s dans cette visualisation et ne correspondre qu\u2019\u00e0 un courant marginal dans la vie politique, 3) l\u2019offre politique pourrait ne pas \u00eatre en ad\u00e9quation avec la r\u00e9alit\u00e9 du terrain.<\/li>\n<li class=\"\" data-startline=\"17\" data-endline=\"18\">les gauches et les \u00e9cologistes (hors <em>France Insoumise<\/em>) qui ont propos\u00e9 de nombreuses candidatures, parfois concurrentes, ont r\u00e9ussi \u00e0 fusionner pour se maintenir tout en gardant une certaine repr\u00e9sentativit\u00e9 de la diversit\u00e9 des gauches.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<\/div><\/section><br \/>\n\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-kqdtcn9t-c9d4c3ef964c42936590080e4960700c\">\n#top .av-special-heading.av-kqdtcn9t-c9d4c3ef964c42936590080e4960700c{\npadding-bottom:10px;\n}\nbody .av-special-heading.av-kqdtcn9t-c9d4c3ef964c42936590080e4960700c .av-special-heading-tag .heading-char{\nfont-size:25px;\n}\n.av-special-heading.av-kqdtcn9t-c9d4c3ef964c42936590080e4960700c .av-subheading{\nfont-size:15px;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div  class='av-special-heading av-kqdtcn9t-c9d4c3ef964c42936590080e4960700c av-special-heading-h3  avia-builder-el-3  el_after_av_textblock  el_before_av_image '><h3 class='av-special-heading-tag '  itemprop=\"headline\"  >Candidats ayant pass\u00e9 le premier tour (plus de 10% des voix)<\/h3><div class=\"special-heading-border\"><div class=\"special-heading-inner-border\"><\/div><\/div><\/div><br \/>\n\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-kqdtblb3-7196320348730fadf6762e572c577140\">\n.avia-image-container.av-kqdtblb3-7196320348730fadf6762e572c577140 img.avia_image{\nbox-shadow:none;\n}\n.avia-image-container.av-kqdtblb3-7196320348730fadf6762e572c577140 .av-image-caption-overlay-center{\ncolor:#ffffff;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div  class='avia-image-container av-kqdtblb3-7196320348730fadf6762e572c577140 av-styling- av-img-linked avia-align-center  avia-builder-el-4  el_after_av_heading  el_before_av_heading '   itemprop=\"image\" itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/ImageObject\" ><div class=\"avia-image-container-inner\"><div class=\"avia-image-overlay-wrap\"><a href=\"https:\/\/iscpif.fr\/chavalarias\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2021\/06\/Reg1erTour10_Zoom.png\" class='avia_image '  aria-label='Reg1erTour+10_Zoom'><img decoding=\"async\" fetchpriority=\"high\" class='wp-image-2193 avia-img-lazy-loading-not-2193 avia_image ' src=\"https:\/\/iscpif.fr\/chavalarias\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2021\/06\/Reg1erTour10_Zoom.png\" alt='' title='Reg1erTour+10_Zoom'  height=\"2322\" width=\"2501\"  itemprop=\"thumbnailUrl\"  \/><\/a><\/div><\/div><\/div><br \/>\n\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-kqdte5xg-3e892af248b158b8571954f8929b33d3\">\n#top .av-special-heading.av-kqdte5xg-3e892af248b158b8571954f8929b33d3{\npadding-bottom:10px;\n}\nbody .av-special-heading.av-kqdte5xg-3e892af248b158b8571954f8929b33d3 .av-special-heading-tag .heading-char{\nfont-size:25px;\n}\n.av-special-heading.av-kqdte5xg-3e892af248b158b8571954f8929b33d3 .av-subheading{\nfont-size:15px;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div  class='av-special-heading av-kqdte5xg-3e892af248b158b8571954f8929b33d3 av-special-heading-h3  avia-builder-el-5  el_after_av_image  el_before_av_image '><h3 class='av-special-heading-tag '  itemprop=\"headline\"  >Candidats maintenant leur candidature au 2nd tour<\/h3><div class=\"special-heading-border\"><div class=\"special-heading-inner-border\"><\/div><\/div><\/div><br \/>\n\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-kqdted7v-4d3a83f135b052903dde94d6e3867e9e\">\n.avia-image-container.av-kqdted7v-4d3a83f135b052903dde94d6e3867e9e img.avia_image{\nbox-shadow:none;\n}\n.avia-image-container.av-kqdted7v-4d3a83f135b052903dde94d6e3867e9e .av-image-caption-overlay-center{\ncolor:#ffffff;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div  class='avia-image-container av-kqdted7v-4d3a83f135b052903dde94d6e3867e9e av-styling- av-img-linked avia-align-center  avia-builder-el-6  el_after_av_heading  el_before_av_heading '   itemprop=\"image\" itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/ImageObject\" ><div class=\"avia-image-container-inner\"><div class=\"avia-image-overlay-wrap\"><a href=\"https:\/\/iscpif.fr\/chavalarias\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2021\/06\/Reg1erTourMaintienZoom.png\" class='avia_image '  aria-label='Reg1erTourMaintienZoom'><img decoding=\"async\" fetchpriority=\"high\" class='wp-image-2192 avia-img-lazy-loading-not-2192 avia_image ' src=\"https:\/\/iscpif.fr\/chavalarias\/wp-content\/uploads\/sites\/4\/2021\/06\/Reg1erTourMaintienZoom.png\" alt='' title='Reg1erTourMaintienZoom'  height=\"2322\" width=\"2501\"  itemprop=\"thumbnailUrl\"  \/><\/a><\/div><\/div><\/div><br \/>\n\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-av_heading-3cc84d77dd7ba7f9064538cfedd689c1\">\n#top .av-special-heading.av-av_heading-3cc84d77dd7ba7f9064538cfedd689c1{\npadding-bottom:10px;\n}\nbody .av-special-heading.av-av_heading-3cc84d77dd7ba7f9064538cfedd689c1 .av-special-heading-tag .heading-char{\nfont-size:25px;\n}\n.av-special-heading.av-av_heading-3cc84d77dd7ba7f9064538cfedd689c1 .av-subheading{\nfont-size:15px;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div  class='av-special-heading av-av_heading-3cc84d77dd7ba7f9064538cfedd689c1 av-special-heading-h3  avia-builder-el-7  el_after_av_image  el_before_av_image '><h3 class='av-special-heading-tag '  itemprop=\"headline\"  >Candidats ayant fait plus de 5% des voix<\/h3><div class=\"special-heading-border\"><div class=\"special-heading-inner-border\"><\/div><\/div><\/div><br \/>\n\n<style type=\"text\/css\" data-created_by=\"avia_inline_auto\" id=\"style-css-av-av_image-6183bbc26d83576e14f142a3ef5fcb2e\">\n.avia-image-container.av-av_image-6183bbc26d83576e14f142a3ef5fcb2e img.avia_image{\nbox-shadow:none;\n}\n.avia-image-container.av-av_image-6183bbc26d83576e14f142a3ef5fcb2e .av-image-caption-overlay-center{\ncolor:#ffffff;\n}\n<\/style>\n<div  class='avia-image-container av-av_image-6183bbc26d83576e14f142a3ef5fcb2e av-styling- av-img-linked avia-align-center  avia-builder-el-8  el_after_av_heading  el_before_av_textblock '   itemprop=\"image\" itemscope=\"itemscope\" itemtype=\"https:\/\/schema.org\/ImageObject\" ><div class=\"avia-image-container-inner\"><div class=\"avia-image-overlay-wrap\"><a 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text<\/p>\n<\/div><\/section><\/p><\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":9,"featured_media":2194,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[31],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-2189","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-blog"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/iscpif.fr\/chavalarias\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2189","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/iscpif.fr\/chavalarias\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/iscpif.fr\/chavalarias\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/iscpif.fr\/chavalarias\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/9"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/iscpif.fr\/chavalarias\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=2189"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/iscpif.fr\/chavalarias\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2189\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":2196,"href":"https:\/\/iscpif.fr\/chavalarias\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/2189\/revisions\/2196"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/iscpif.fr\/chavalarias\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/2194"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/iscpif.fr\/chavalarias\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=2189"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/iscpif.fr\/chavalarias\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=2189"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/iscpif.fr\/chavalarias\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=2189"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}